Bihar Budget Analysis 2024-25

Budget Highlights

• The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Bihar for 2024-25 (at current prices) is projected to be Rs 9.76 lakh crore, amounting to growth of 13.5% over the previous year.

• Expenditure (excluding debt repayment) in 2024-25 is estimated to be Rs 2,56,333 crore, a decrease of 12% over the revised estimates of 2023-24.  In addition, debt of Rs 22,393 crore will be repaid by the state.  In 2023-24, expenditure (excluding debt repayment) is estimated to be 22% higher than the budget estimate.

• Receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2024-25 are estimated to be Rs 2,27,238 crore, an increase of 5.7% over the revised estimates of 2023-24.  In 2023-24, receipts (excluding borrowings) are estimated to be 1% higher than the budget estimates.

• Revenue surplus in 2024-25 is estimated to be Rs 1,121 crore (0.1% of GSDP).  As per the revised estimates, the state is expected to observe a revenue deficit of Rs 35,530 crore in 2023-24 (4.1% of GSDP).   In 2023-24, revenue surplus of Rs 4,479 crore was estimated at the budget stage (0.5% of GSDP).

• Fiscal deficit for 2024-25 is targeted at 3% of GSDP (Rs 29,095 crore).   In 2023-24, as per the revised estimates, fiscal deficit is expected to be 8.9% of GSDP, significantly higher than budgeted (3% of GSDP).

Policy Highlights

• Women self-help groups:  Jeevika will be expanded to provide for women self-help groups in urban areas.  

• Support to students from backward classes:  More exams will be covered under the scheme to provide a one-time cash transfer upon clearing the preliminary round of competitive examinations.

• Grants to small entrepreneurs:  To improve the financial situation of poor households, a scheme to provide a grant of two lakh rupees for setting up a small business has been approved.  The outlay towards this scheme is estimated to be Rs 1,000 crore in 2024-25.

Bihar’s Economy GSDP:  In 2022-23, Bihar’s GSDP (at constant prices) is estimated to grow at 10.6%.     Bihar’s GSDP is estimated to grow at a higher rate than the national GDP (7.2%) in 2022-23. Sectors:  In 2022-23, the agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors are estimated to grow by 6.7%, 6.8%, and 13% respectively.  In 2022-23, agriculture, manufacturing, and services are estimated to contribute 25%, 17%, and 58% to the economy, respectively (at current prices). Per capita GSDP:  The per capita GSDP of Bihar in 2022-23 (at current prices) is estimated at Rs 59,637, an increase of 14% over the previous year.  In 2022-23, per capita GDP at the national level is estimated to be significantly higher (Rs 1,96,983). Unemployment:  As per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (July 2022-June 2023), the unemployment rate in Bihar was 3.9%, higher than the national level (3.2%).  Unemployment in the 15-29 years age group was 13.9%, also higher than the national level (10%).

Figure  1 : Growth in GSDP and sectors in Bihar at constant prices (2011-12)   Note:  Agriculture also includes mining and quarrying; manufacturing also includes construction, and electricity, gas, water, and other utility services.  These numbers are as per constant prices (2011-12) which implies that the growth rate is adjusted for inflation. Sources: Bihar Economic Survey 2023-24; PRS.

Budget Estimates for 2024-25

Credibility of revised estimates The purpose of revised estimates in the budget is to provide a more realistic picture of the ongoing financial year, based on actual data for 9-10 months.  However, in Bihar, expenditure estimates at the revised stage are often unrealistic, leading to fiscal deficit estimates being above the permitted limit.  In 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24, as per the revised estimates, fiscal deficit as % of GSDP has been estimated to be 11.3%, 8.8%, and 8.9% respectively.  In 2021-22 and 2022-23, fiscal deficit as % of GSDP as per actuals was 4.8% and 6%, respectively.  Expenditure estimates for 2022-23 at the revised stage was estimated to be 21% higher than the budget estimates, however, actual expenditure in 2022-23 is 2% lower than budgeted (Table 7 in Annexure 2).

• Total expenditure (excluding debt repayment) in 2024-25 is targeted at Rs 2,56,333 crore.  This is a decrease of 12% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  This expenditure is proposed to be met through receipts (excluding borrowings) of Rs 2,27,238 crore and net borrowings of Rs 29,295 crore.  Total receipts for 2023-24 (other than borrowings) are expected to register an increase of 5.7% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.

• Revenue surplus in 2024-25 is estimated to be Rs 1,121 crore (0.1% of GSDP).  In comparison, in 2023-24, the state is expected to observe a revenue deficit of Rs 35,530 crore (4.1% of GSDP).  Fiscal deficit for 2024-25 is targeted at 3% of GSDP    (Rs 29,095 crore), which is within the limit of 3.5% of GSDP permitted by the central government (of which 0.5% of GSDP becomes available upon undertaking power sector reforms).

• In 2023-24, as per revised estimates, deficit levels are expected to be significantly higher than budget estimates.  This is owing to significantly higher expenditure estimated at the revised stage (22%), without a similar increase expected in receipts (1% higher than budgeted).  Fiscal deficit in 2023-24 is expected to be 8.9% of GSDP as per the revised estimates.  Given that the estimated fiscal deficit is significantly above the permitted fiscal deficit limit for the year (3.5% of GSDP), these revised estimates are unlikely to hold.  Hence, actual expenditure in 2023-24 might be significantly lower than the revised estimate.

Table  1 : Budget 2024-25 - Key figures (in Rs crore)

Items	2022-23 Actuals	2023-24 Budgeted	2023-24 Revised	% change from BE 23-24 to RE 23-24	2024-25 Budgeted	% change from RE 23-24 to BE 24-25
Total Expenditure	2,31,904	2,61,885	3,14,951	20.3%	2,78,726	-11.5%
(-) Repayment of debt	14,351	23,559	23,559	0.0%	22,393	-4.9%
Net Expenditure (E)	2,17,553	2,38,327	2,91,392	22.3%	2,56,333	-12.0%
Total Receipts	2,21,013	2,62,085	2,77,532	5.9%	2,78,926	0.5%
(-) Borrowings	48,284	49,327	62,606	26.9%	51,688	-17.4%
of which      special loan for capex from centre*	8,456	0	10,058	-	0	-100%
Net Receipts (R)	1,72,730	2,12,759	2,14,926	1.0%	2,27,238	5.7%
Fiscal Deficit (E-R)	44,823	25,568	76,466	199.1%	29,095	-61.9%
as % of GSDP	6.0%	3.0%	8.9%		3.0%
Revenue Balance	-11,288	4,479	-35,530	-893.3%	1,121	-103.2%
as % of GSDP	-1.5%	0.5%	-4.1%		0.1%
Primary Deficit	29,640	7,213	58,111	705.6%	8,569	-85.3%
as % of GSDP	3.9%	0.8%	6.8%		0.9%
GSDP	7,51,396	8,58,928	8,60,238	0.2%	9,76,514	13.5%

Note: BE is Budget Estimates; RE is Revised Estimates.  *The central government has been providing 50-year interest free loan to states for capital expenditure, which are over and above the permitted borrowing ceiling for a given financial year.
Sources: Annual Financial Statement, Budget in Brief, FRBM Statement, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Expenditure in 2024-25

• Revenue expenditure for 2024-25 is proposed to be Rs 2,25,677 crore, a decrease of 10% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  This includes the expenditure on salaries, pensions, interest, grants, and subsidies.  In 2023-24, revenue expenditure is estimated to be 20% higher than the budget estimates.

• Capital outlay for 2024-25 is proposed to be Rs 29,416 crore, a decrease of 26% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  Capital outlay indicates the expenditure towards creation of assets.   In 2023-24, as per revised estimates, capital outlay is expected to be 35% higher than the budget estimates.

Table  2 :  Expenditure budget 2024-25 (in Rs crore)

Items	2022-23 Actuals	2023-24 Budgeted	2023-24 Revised	% change from BE 23-24 to RE 23-24	2024-25 Budgeted	% change from RE 23-24 to BE 24-25
Revenue Expenditure	1,83,976	2,07,848	2,50,024	20%	2,25,677	-10%
Capital Outlay	31,520	29,257	39,623	35%	29,416	-26%
Loans given by the state	2,057	1,221	1,745	43%	1,240	-29%
Net Expenditure	2,17,553	2,38,327	2,91,392	22%	2,56,333	-12%

Sources:  Annual Financial Statement, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Committed expenditure: Committed expenditure of a state typically includes expenditure on payment of salaries, pensions, and interest.  These expenditure items are difficult to rationalise in short-term.  A larger proportion of budget allocated for committed expenditure limits the state’s flexibility to decide on other developmental expenditure priorities such as capital outlay.   In 2024-25, Bihar is estimated to spend Rs 92,882 crore on committed expenditure, which is 41% of its estimated revenue receipts.  This comprises spending on salaries (18% of revenue receipts), pension (14%), and interest payments (9%).  In 2024-25, expenditure towards salaries is estimated to be register an increase of 24% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  In 2022-23, as per actuals, 36% of revenue receipts were spent towards committed expenditure.

Table  3 : Committed Expenditure in 2024-25 (in Rs crore)

Items	2022-23 Actuals	2023-24 Budgeted	2023-24 Revised	% change from BE 23-24 to RE 23-24	2024-25 Budgeted	% change from RE 23-24 to BE 24-25
Salaries	23,497	31,119	32,635	5%	40,559	24%
Pension	23,108	29,437	29,437	0%	31,796	8%
Interest payment	15,184	18,354	18,354	0%	20,526	12%
Total Committed Expenditure	61,788	78,910	80,426	2%	92,882	15%

Note: BE is Budget Estimates; RE is Revised Estimates.
Sources: Annual Financial Statement, Budget in Brief, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Sector-wise expenditure: The sectors listed below account for 66% of the total expenditure on sectors by the state in 2024-25.  A comparison of Bihar’s expenditure on key sectors with that by other states is shown in Annexure 1.

Table  4 : Sector-wise expenditure under Bihar Budget 2024-25 (in Rs crore)

Sector	2022-23 Actuals	2023-24 Budgeted	2023-24 Revised	2024-25 Budgeted	% change from RE 23-24 to BE 24-25	Budget Provisions for 2024-25
Education, Sports, Arts, and Culture	42,810	42,381	58,378	54,605	-6%	Rs 14,596 crore has been allocated towards Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan.
Rural Development	19,329	25,270	32,593	27,101	-17%	Rs 5,092 crore has been allocated towards MGNREGS.     Rs 2,071 crore have been allocated towards Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana..
Social Welfare and Nutrition	14,118	14,763	17,741	14,718	-17%	Rs 2,967 crore has been allocated towards Saksham Anganwadi Poshan 2.0.  Rs 897 crore has been allocated towards Mukhyamantri Vriddhhajan Pension Yojana.
Health and Family Welfare	11,810	16,704	19,296	14,488	-25%	Rs 3,620 crore has been allocated towards National Health Mission.
Police	9,810	11,686	13,268	13,528	2%	Rs 7,659 crore has been allocated towards the district police.
Energy	15,829	11,436	15,572	11,334	-27%	Rs 9,000 crore has been allocated towards subsidies for affordable power.
Urban Development	5,001	8,783	11,514	10,370	-10%	Rs 2,103 crore has been allocated towards PM Awas Yojana-Urban.  Rs 640 crore has been allocated towards the Smart City Mission.
Agriculture and Allied Activities	5,212	7,726	8,609	7,943	-8%	Rs 667 crore has been allocated towards subsidies under various schemes administered by the Agriculture Department.
Roads and Bridges	11,186	9,430	12,880	7,723	-40%	Rs 3,819 crore has been allocated for capital outlay on roads and bridges.
Irrigation and Flood Control	3,945	5,360	5,947	5,388	-9%	Rs 3,964 crore has been allocated towards capital outlay on irrigation and flood control.
% of total expenditure  on all sectors	65%	65%	68%	66%	-

Sources: Annual Financial Statement, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Receipts in 2024-25

• Total revenue receipts for 2024-25 are estimated to be Rs 2,26,798 crore, an increase of 6% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  Of this, Rs 61,626 crore (27%) will be raised by the state through its own resources, and Rs 1,65,173 crore (73%) will come from the centre.  Resources from the centre will be in the form of state’s share in central taxes (50% of revenue receipts) and grants (23% of revenue receipts).

• Devolution:  In 2024-25, the state’s share in central taxes is estimated at Rs 1,13,012 crore, an increase of 10% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.   As per the interim Union budget 2024-25, Bihar’s share in central taxes is estimated to be Rs 1,22,686 crore in 2024-25. 

• Grants from the centre in 2024-25 are estimated at Rs 52,161 crore, a decrease of 5% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.

• State’s own tax revenue:  Bihar’s total own tax revenue is estimated to be Rs 54,300 crore in 2024-25, an increase of 8% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  Own tax revenue as a percentage of GSDP is estimated at 5.6% in 2024-25, lower than the revised estimates for 2023-24 (5.9%).  As per the actual figures for 2022-23, own tax revenue as a percentage of GSDP was 5.9%.

Table  5 : Break-up of the state government’s receipts (in Rs crore)

Items	2022-23 Actuals	2023-24 Budgeted	2023-24 Revised	% change from BE 2023-24 to RE 2023-24	2024-25 Budgeted	% change from RE 2023-24 to BE 2024-25
State's Own Tax	44,018	49,700	50,400	1%	54,300	8%
State's Own Non-Tax	4,135	6,512	6,582	1%	7,326	11%
Share in Central Taxes	95,510	1,02,737	1,02,737	0%	1,13,012	10%
Grants-in-aid from Centre	29,026	53,378	54,775	3%	52,161	-5%
Revenue Receipts	1,72,688	2,12,327	2,14,494	1%	2,26,798	6%
Non-debt Capital Receipts	41	432	432	0%	439	2%
Net Receipts	1,72,730	2,12,759	2,14,926	1%	2,27,238	6%

BE is Budget Estimates; RE is Revised Estimates. 
Sources: Annual Financial Statement, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Grants from centre for urban local bodies As per the recommendations of the 15th Finance Commission, the central government has been providing grants to urban local bodies (ULBs) of Bihar.  Total recommended grants are Rs 9,999 crore over five-years period between 2021-22 and 2025-26.  Out of this, the entire grant for ULBs in cities with million-plus population is performance-linked (Rs 1,690 crore in total).  Patna is the only city under this category.  The grant will be available upon meeting certain targets for improving air quality, drinking water supply, and sanitation.  In case of other cities, 60% of the grants are tied in nature.  In 2021-22, Bihar could avail only Rs 836 crore out of Rs 1,827 crore of grant available for its ULBs (54% less).  In 2022-23 too, the receipt on this account was 18% lower (Rs 1,552 crore against the available sum of Rs 1,892 crore).

• In 2024-25, State GST (SGST) is estimated to be the largest source of own tax revenue (58% of own tax revenue).   SGST revenue is estimated to increase by only 1% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  However, compared to actual collection in 2022-23, SGST revenue in 2024-25 is estimated to register an annualised increase of 17%. 

• Revenue from Sales Tax/ VAT in 2024-25 (Rs 10,010 crore) is expected to register an increase of 26% over the revised estimates for 2023-24.  

Table  6 :  Major sources of state’s own-tax revenue (in Rs crore)

Head	2022-23 Actuals	2023-24 Budgeted	2023-24 Revised	% change from BE 23-24 to RE 23-24	2024-25 Budgeted	% change from RE 23-24 to BE 24-25
State GST	23,243	31,111	31,111	0%	31,565	1%
Sales Tax/ VAT	9,881	7,934	7,934	0%	10,010	26%
Stamps Duty and Registration Fees	6,451	6,300	7,000	11%	7,500	7%
Taxes on Vehicles	2,935	3,300	3,300	0%	3,700	12%
Taxes and Duties on Electricity	987	330	330	0%	750	127%
Land Revenue	361	550	550	0%	600	9%
State Excise	1	-	-	-	0	-
GST Compensation Grants	184	-	398	-	-	-

Sources: Annual Financial Statement, Detailed Statement on Revenue and Capital Receipts, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Deficits and Debt Targets for 2024-25

The Bihar Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2006 provides annual targets to progressively reduce the outstanding liabilities, revenue deficit and fiscal deficit of the state government.

Losses of State Discoms Bihar has two state-owned power distribution companies: NBPDCL and SBPDCL.  In 2021-22, the two companies recorded losses of Rs 2,635 crore.  In 2021-22, they recorded AT&C losses of 32%, which is significantly higher than the national average (17%).  AT&C losses signify the percentage of power supplied for which the utility did not collect money.  Reasons for high AT&C losses could be theft, sub-optimal distribution infrastructure, and inefficiencies in billing and collection.     As of 2022-23, the state government has guaranteed loans taken by these two companies worth Rs 9,808 crore.

Revenue surplus:  It is the difference of revenue receipts and revenue expenditure.   A revenue surplus implies that the government’ revenue is sufficient to cover expenses which do not increase its assets or reduces its liabilities.  The budget estimates a revenue surplus of Rs 1,121 crore (0.1% of the GSDP) in 2024-25.  Between 2019-20 and 2023-24 (as per revised estimates), the state has persistently observed a revenue deficit, which implies that it has relied on borrowings to meet its revenue expenditure.

Fiscal deficit:  It is the excess of total expenditure over total receipts.  This gap is filled by borrowings by the government and leads to an increase in total liabilities.  In 2024-25, the fiscal deficit is estimated to be 3% of GSDP.  In 2023-24, as per revised estimates, fiscal deficit is expected to be 8.9% of GSDP.

For both 2023-24 and 2024-25, the central government has permitted fiscal deficit of up to 3.5% of GSDP to states, of which 0.5% of GSDP will be available upon carrying out certain power sector reforms.  Unutilised fiscal deficit limit from years since 2021-22 may also be utilised in subsequent years.  In addition, the central government has been providing 50-year interest free loans for capital expenditure over and above the yearly borrowing limit since 2020-21.   Additional borrowing to the extent of yearly contributions to NPS have also been permitted in 2022-23 and 2023-24.

In 2022-23, fiscal deficit was 6% of GSDP, significantly higher than the unconditional limit of 3.5% of GSDP for that year.  As per budget documents, reasons for higher deficit include special loan for capital expenditure from centre (Rs 8,486 crore, i.e., 1.1% of GSDP), and certain account adjustments from suspense account. 

Outstanding liabilities:  Outstanding liabilities is the accumulation of total borrowings at the end of a financial year.  It also includes any liabilities on public account.  At the end of 2024-25, the outstanding liabilities are estimated to be 35.7% of GSDP, the same as the budget estimates for 2023-24.

Figure  2 : Revenue and Fiscal Balance (% of GSDP)    Note: Positive (+) figures indicate a surplus and negative (-) figures indicate a deficit; *Figures for 2025-26 and 2026-27 are projections; For 2020-21 and 2021-22, deficits reported without treating GST compensation loans as grants.  RE is Revised Estimates; BE is budget estimates. Sources: FRBM Statement, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Figure  3 : Outstanding Liabilities (as % of GSDP)   Note: *Figures for 2025-26 and 2026-27 are projections; RE is Revised Estimates; BE is budget estimates. Sources: FRBM Statement, Budget in Brief, Bihar Budget 2024-25; PRS.

Outstanding Government Guarantees: Outstanding liabilities of states do not include a few other liabilities that are contingent in nature, which states may have to honour in certain cases.  State governments guarantee the borrowings of State Public Sector Enterprises (SPSEs) from financial institutions.  As of March 31, 2023, the state’s outstanding guarantee is estimated to be Rs 25,257 crore, which is 3% of Bihar’s GSDP in 2022-23.   Of these guarantees, 52% belong to the power sector (Rs 13,008 crore).  

Annexure 1:  Comparison of states’ expenditure on key sectors

The graphs below compare Bihar’s expenditure in 2024-25 on six key sectors as a proportion of its total expenditure on all sectors.   The average for a sector indicates the average expenditure in that sector by 31 states (including Bihar) as per their budget estimates of 2023-24.  [1]

• Education: Bihar has allocated 21.4% of its expenditure on education in 2024-25.  This is significantly higher than the average allocation for education by states in 2023-24 (14.7%).

• Health:  Bihar has allocated 5.7% of its total expenditure towards health, which is lower than the average allocation for health by states (6.2%).

• Rural development:  Bihar has allocated 10.6% of its expenditure on rural development.  This is significantly higher than the average allocation for rural development by states (5%).

• Agriculture:  Bihar has allocated 3.1% of its expenditure towards agriculture.  This is significantly lower than the average allocation towards agriculture by states (5.9%).

• Police:  Bihar has allocated 5.3% of its total expenditure towards police, which is higher than the average expenditure on police by states (4.2%).

• Roads and bridges:  Bihar has allocated 3% of its total expenditure towards roads and bridges, which is lower than the average allocation by states (4.6%).

Note: 2022-23, 2023-24 (BE), 2023-24 (RE), and 2024-25 (BE) figures are for Bihar.
Sources: Annual Financial Statement, Bihar Budget 2024-25; various state budgets; PRS.

The 31 states include the Union Territories of Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, and Puducherry .

Annexure 2:  Comparison of 2022-23 Budget Estimates and Actuals

The following tables compare the actuals of 2022-23 with budget estimates for that year.

Table  7 :Overview of Receipts and Expenditure (in Rs crore)

Particular	2022-23 BE	2022-23 Actuals	% change from BE to Actuals
Net Receipts (1+2)	1,97,136	1,72,730	-12%
1. Revenue Receipts (a+b+c+d)	1,96,705	1,72,688	-12%
a. Own Tax Revenue	41,387	44,018	6%
b. Own Non-Tax Revenue	6,136	4,135	-33%
c. Share in central taxes	91,181	95,510	5%
d. Grants-in-aid from the Centre	58,001	29,026	-50%
Of which GST compensation grants	3,500	184	-95%
2. Non-Debt Capital Receipts	432	41	-90%
3. Borrowings	40,756	48,284	18%
Of which GST compensation loan	0	0	-
Net Expenditure (4+5+6)	2,23,021	2,17,553	-2%
4. Revenue Expenditure	1,91,957	1,83,976	-4%
5. Capital Outlay	29,750	31,520	6%
6. Loans and Advances	1,315	2,057	56%
7. Debt Repayment	14,670	14,351	-2%
Revenue Balance	4,748	-11,288	-338%
Revenue Balance (as % of GSDP)	0.6%	-1.5%	-
Fiscal Deficit	25,885	44,823	73%
Fiscal Deficit (as % of GSDP)	3.5%	6.0%	-

Source: Bihar Budget Documents of various years; PRS.

Table  8 : Key Components of State's Own Tax Revenue

Tax Source/Head	2022-23 BE	2022-23 Actuals	% change from BE to Actuals
Land Revenue	500	361	-28%
State GST	24,721	23,243	-6%
Taxes on Vehicles	3,000	2,935	-2%
Stamps Duty and Registration Fees	5,500	6,451	17%
Sales Tax/ VAT	7,210	9,881	37%
Taxes and Duties on Electricity	287	987	244%
State Excise	0	1	-

Source: Bihar Budget Documents of various years; PRS.

Table  9 : Allocation towards Key Sectors

Sector	2022-23 BE	2022-23 Actuals	% change from BE to Actuals
Agriculture and Allied Activities	7,712	5,212	-32%
Urban Development	7,133	5,001	-30%
Health and Family Welfare	15,898	11,810	-26%
Irrigation and Flood Control	5,295	3,945	-25%
Welfare of SC, ST, OBC, and Minorities	3,779	2,939	-22%
Rural Development	23,553	19,329	-18%
Police	11,911	9,810	-18%
Water Supply and Sanitation	4,073	3,862	-5%
Education, Sports, Arts, and Culture	40,828	42,810	5%
Social Welfare and Nutrition	13,208	14,118	7%
Transport	9,002	12,288	36%
of which Roads and Bridges	8,365	11,186	34%
Housing	9,405	12,889	37%
Energy	11,376	15,829	39%

Source: Bihar Budget Documents of various years; PRS