As of April 26, Rajasthan has 2,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (fifth highest in the country), of which 493 have recovered and 33 have died.  On March 18, the Rajasthan government had declared a state-wide curfew till March 31, to check the spread of the disease.  A nation-wide lockdown has also been in place since March 25 and is currently, extended up to May 3.  The state has announced several policy decisions to prevent the spread of the virus and provide relief for those affected by it.  This blog summarises the key policy measures taken by the Government of Rajasthan in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Early measures for containment

Between late January and early February, Rajasthan Government’s measures were aimed towards identification, screening and testing, and constant monitoring of passenger arrivals from China.  Instructions were also issued to district health officials for various prevention, treatment, & control related activities, such as (i) mandatory 28-day home isolation for all travellers from China, (ii) running awareness campaigns, and (iii) ensuring adequate supplies of Personal Protection Equipments (PPEs).  Some of the other measures, taken prior to the state-wide lockdown, are summarised below:

Administrative measures

  • The government announced the formation of Rapid Response Teams (RRTs), at the medical college-level and at district-level on March 3 and 5, respectively.

  • The District Collector was appointed as the Nodal Officer for all COVID-19 containment activities.  Control Rooms were to be opened at all Sub-divisional offices.  The concerned officers were also directed to strengthen information dissemination mechanisms and tackle the menace of fake news.

  • Directives were issued on March 11 to rural health workers/officials to report for duty on Gazetted holidays.  Further, government departments were shut down between March 22 and March 31.  Only essential departments such as Health Services were allowed to function on a rotation basis at 50% capacity and special / emergency leaves were permitted. 

Travel and Movement

Health Measures

  • Advisories regarding prevention and control measures were issued to: (i) District Collectors, regarding sample collection and transportation, hotels, and preparedness of hospitals, (ii) Police department, to stop using breath analysers, (iii) Private hospitals, regarding preparedness and monitoring activities, and (iv) Temple trusts, to disinfect their premises with chemicals. 

  • The government issued Standard Operating Procedures for conducting mock drills in emergency response handling of COVID-19 cases.  Training and capacity building measures were also initiated for (i) Railways, Army personnel etc and (ii) ASHA workers, through video conferencing. 

  • A model micro-plan for containing local transmission of COVID was released.  Key features of the plan include: (i) identification and mapping of affected areas, (ii) activities for prevention control, surveillance, and contact tracing, (iii) human resource management, including roles and responsibilities, (iv) various infrastructural and logistical support, such as hospitals, labs etc, and (v) communication and data management.

  • Resource Management: Private hospitals and medical colleges were instructed to reserve 25 % of beds for COVID-19 patients.  They were also instructed to utilise faculty from the departments of Preventive and Social Medicine to conduct health education and awareness activities. 

  • Over 6000 Students of nursing schools were employed in assisting the health department to conduct screening activities being conducted at public places, railways stations, bus stands etc.

  • Further, the government issued guidelines to ensure the rational use of PPEs.

Welfare Measures

During the lockdown

State-wide curfew announced on March 18 has been followed by a nation-wide lockdown between March 25 and May 3. However, certain relaxations have been recommended by the state government from April 21 onwards.  Some of the key measures undertaken during the lockdown period are: 

Administrative Measures

  • Advisory groups and task forces were set up on – (i) COVID-19 prevention, (ii) Health and Economy, and (iii) Higher education.  These groups will provide advice on the way forward for (i) prevention and containment activities, (ii) post-lockdown strategies and strategies to revive the economy, and (iii) to address the challenges facing the higher education sector respectively. 

  • Services of retiring medical and paramedical professionals retiring between March and August have been extended till September 2020. 

Essential Goods and Services

  • A Drug Supply Control Room was set up at the Rajasthan Pharmacy Council.  This is to ensure uninterrupted supply of medicines during the lockdown and will also assist in facilitating home delivery of medicines.

  • The government permitted Fair Price Shops to sell products such as masalas, sanitisers, and hygiene products, in addition to food grains.

  • Village service cooperatives were declared as secondary markets to facilitate farmers to sell their produce near their own fields/villages during the lockdown. 

  • A Whatsapp helpline was also set up for complaints regarding hoarding, black marketing, and overpricing.

Travel and Movement

  • Once lockdown was in place, the government issued instructions to identify, screen, and categorise people from other states who have travelled to Rajasthan.  They were to be categorised into: (i) people displaying symptoms to be put in isolation wards, (ii) people over 60 years of age with symptoms and co-morbidities to be put in quarantine centres, and (iii) asymptomatic people to be home quarantined.

  • On March 28, the government announced the availability of buses to transport people during the lockdown.  Further, stranded students in Kota were allowed to return to their respective states. 

  • On April 2, a portal and a helpline were launched to help stranded foreign tourists and NRIs.

  • On April 11, an e-pass facility was launched for movement of people and vehicles. 

Health Measures

  • To identify COVID-19 patients, district officials were instructed to monitor people with ARI/URI/Pneumonia or other breathing difficulties coming into hospital OPDs.  Pharmacists were also instructed to not issue medicines for cold/cough without prescriptions. 

  • A mobile app – Raj COVID Info – was developed by the government for tracking of quarantined people.  Quarantined persons are required to send their selfie clicks at regular intervals, failing which a notification would be sent by the app.  The app also provides a lot of information on COVID-19, such as the number of cases, and press releases by the government.

  • Due to the lockdown, people had restricted access to hospitals and treatment.  Thus, instructions were issued to utilise Mobile Medical Vans for treatment/screening and also as mobile OPDs

  • On April 20, a detailed action plan for prevention and control of COVID-19 was released.  The report recommended: (i) preparation of a containment plan, (ii) formation of RRTs, (iii) testing protocols, (iv) setting up of control room and helpline, (v) designated quarantine centres and COVID-19 hospitals, (vi) roles and responsibilities, and (vii) other logistics. 

Welfare Measures

  • The government issued instructions to make medicines available free of cost to senior citizens and other patients with chronic illnesses through the Chief Minister’s Free Medicine Scheme.  

  • Rs 60 crore was allotted to Panchayati Raj Institutions to purchase PPEs and for other prevention activities. 

  • A one-time cash transfer of Rs 1000 to over 15 lakh construction workers was announced.  Similar cash transfer of Rs 1000 was announced for poor people who were deprived of livelihood during the lockdown, particularly those people with no social security benefits.  Eligible families would be selected through the Aadhaar database.  Further, an additional cash transfer of Rs 1500 to needy eligible families from different categories was announced.

  • The state also announced an aid of Rs 50 lakh to the families of frontline workers who lose their lives due to COVID-19.

  • To maintain social distancing, the government will conduct a door-to-door distribution of ration to select beneficiaries in rural areas of the state.  The government also announced the distribution of free wheat for April, May, and June, under the National Food Security Act, 2013.  Ration will also be distributed to stranded migrant families from Pakistan, living in the state.

  • The government announced free tractor & farming equipment on rent in tie-up with farming equipment manufacturers to assist economically weak small & marginal farmers.

Other Measures

  • Education: Project SMILE was launched to connect students and teachers online during the lockdown.  Study material would be sent through specially formed Whatsapp groups.  For each subject, 30-40 minute content videos have been prepared by the Education Department.

  • Industry:  On April 18, new guidelines were issued for industries and enterprises to resume operations from April 20 onwards.  Industries located in rural areas or export units / SEZs in municipal areas where accommodation facilities for workers are present, are allowed to function.  Factories have been permitted to increase the working hours from 8 hours to 12 hours per day, to reduce the requirement of workers in factories.  This exemption has been allowed for the next three months for factories operating at 60% to 65% of manpower capacity.

For more information on the spread of COVID-19 and the central and state government response to the pandemic, please see here.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to conduct an off-cycle meeting today to discuss the failure to meet the inflation target under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. As per the Reserve Bank of India Act (RBI), 1934, MPC is required to meet at least four times each year, to discuss the macroeconomic issues in the country, and take policy decisions to address those. This is the second time MPC has conducted an off-cycle meeting in 2022-23. The meeting is scheduled in light of inflation being consistently high for nine consecutive months.

In this blog, we discuss what the inflation targeting framework is, examine retail and wholesale prices, and the divergence between them.   

What is the inflation targeting framework, and what happens if inflation is persistently high?

In 2016, Parliament amended the RBI Act, 1934 to change the monetary policy, and introduce an inflation targeting framework. This framework prioritises price stability to achieve sustainable GDP growth. Price stability allows investors to confidently invest their money for productive activities, without worrying about it losing value. Price stability also maintains the purchasing power of consumers, i.e., the ability to purchase a good (or service) with a given amount of money.

As per the new framework, the central government, in consultation with RBI sets: (i) an inflation target, and (ii) an upper and lower tolerance level for retail inflation. The target has been set at 4%, with an upper tolerance limit of 6% and a lower tolerance limit of 2%. The upper and lower limits indicate that although it is desirable for inflation to be close to 4%, deviation between these limits is acceptable. The target and bands are revised every five years. In March 2021, the existing targets were carried forward.  

Retail inflation has been above 6% for the past nine months, and it has been above 4% from October 2019 onwards (See Figure 1).

Figure 1: Consumer price index (year-on-year; in percentage)

image

Sources: Database on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India; PRS.

If inflation is above or below the prescribed limits for three quarters, RBI must submit a report to the central government explaining why prices have been rising (or falling) persistently, what will be done to correct that, and an estimate as to when the target will be achieved.   

The MPC uses tools such as interest rates to control the level of inflation in the economy. One such rate is the policy repo rate, which is the rate at which RBI lends money to banks. An increase in the policy repo rate makes borrowing money more costly, and hence is expected to control inflation by reducing the money supply. MPC increased this rate from 4% in April 2022 to 4.4% in May 2022, to 4.9% in June 2022, to 5.4% in August 2022, and to 5.9% in September 2022.

Breaking down the Consumer Price Index and the Wholesale Price Index

Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the general prices of goods and services such as food, clothing, and fuel over time. Retail inflation is calculated as the change in the CPI over a period of time. Goods and services such as petrol, food products, health, and education are considered for its calculation, which are assigned different weights (See Table 1). Between February 2022 and August 2022, the average annual inflation was 6.9%. The rise in prices of subcomponents of the CPI during this period is indicated in Table 2.

Table 1: Assigned weights for the calculation of CPI

Category

Weight

Food and beverages

46%

Miscellaneous (including petrol and diesel, health, and education)

28%

Housing

10%

Clothing and footwear

7%

Fuel and light

7%

Pan, tobacco, and intoxications

2%

Total

100%

Sources: MOSPI; PRS.

Table 2: Average inflation of some CPI components
between February 2022 to August 2022 (in percentage)

Subcategory of CPI

Average inflation

Vegetables 

13.26%

Oils and fats

12.46%

Footwear

11.41%

Fuel and Light

9.88%

Transport and communication

7.74%

Cereals and products

6.05%

Sources: Database on Indian Economy, RBI; PRS.

CPI is not the only index that measures inflation in an economy. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the wholesale prices of goods. A change in wholesale prices reflects wholesale inflation. Table 3 indicates the weights assigned to goods for calculating the WPI. Manufactured goods include metals, chemicals, food products, and textiles.   

Primary articles (23%) include food articles, and crude petroleum and natural gas. Fuel and power (12%) include mineral oils, electricity, and coal.  WPI has remained above 10% from April 2021 onwards. It reached an all-time high of 17% in May 2022. This was driven by the inflation in metals, kerosene and petroleum coke, fruits and vegetables, and palm oil.

Table 3:Assigned weights for the
calculation of WPI (in percentage)

Category

Weight

Manufactured products

64%

Primary articles

23%

Fuel and power

12%

All commodities

100%

Sources: Ministry of Commerce and Industry; PRS.

Why has WPI inflation been consistently above CPI inflation?

Movements in the WPI have an impact on the CPI.  For almost a year and half, CPI inflation has remained below WPI inflation.  However, as per the design of the indices, it is expected that CPI would remain above WPI, and that any increase in WPI would reflect in the CPI after a time lag.  This is because retail prices include taxes (as a percentage of price), while wholesale prices do not.  Additionally, some of the goods in WPI act as inputs in the goods considered in CPI.  An increase in input prices would lead to higher retail prices after a time lag.

We discuss possible reasons for why CPI has remained below WPI for a year and a half.

Figure 2: Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index

image

Sources: Database on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India; PRS.

Composition of indices

As indicated in Table 2 and 3, the composition of the two indices varies. For instance, prices of manufacture of basic metals, chemicals, and machinery grew at an average rate of 13% between February 2021 and September 2022.  They contribute 7% to the WPI. These are input goods for producing final goods and services such as automobiles, which are included in the CPI. The rise in prices of transport vehicles, communication devices, fuel for transport, and housing (CPI components) rose by 6% during this period.

The Ministry of Finance has observed that wholesale prices did not feed into retail prices (from March 2021 onwards) as wholesalers absorbed the rising input costs and did not pass them on to retailers. In August 2022, it noted that as retail prices are rising now, the pass-through may occur.